Kyrsten Sinema Leaving the Democratic Party Is a Disaster for the Left
The 2024 Senate map was already brutal for the Democratic Party. Now it’s even worse.
This morning, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced that she’s leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent. Instead of the 51-49 Senate majority Democrats expected, the party will now have a 50-49-1 majority. It’s not completely clear how that will impact the day-to-day functioning of the Senate, but what is clear is that Sinema’s decision is going to give Democrats an enormous headache in 2024.
That election cycle was already set up to be a rough one for the party. They will be defending Senate seats in three red states (Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia) and five swing states (Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona). Meanwhile, the best pickup opportunities Democrats have are in Florida and Texas — states that, barring an enormous Democratic wave or absolutely horrendous Republican nominees, will not be going blue.
In other words, Democrats already needed a minor miracle to hold onto the Senate majority in 2024. With Sinema switching to become an independent, their chances of doing so just got significantly worse. The reason is that if Sinema decides to run for reelection (which seems likely), Democrats will have two options:
First, the party could run full steam ahead against Sinema — meaning they recruit, fund, and endorse a Democratic candidate to run against her in the general election. But it’s quite easy to imagine Sinema siphoning off ten or fifteen percent of the moderate Democratic vote in the general, which would all but guarantee a Republican victory.
The second option Democrats have would be to endorse Sinema and not run a candidate of their own. Democrats ran this playbook in Utah this year, choosing not to nominate a Democratic candidate and instead endorsing an independent, Evan McMullin. But given how much Democrats already disliked Sinema — a problem that will only be exacerbated after today — it’s difficult to imagine her being able to secure enough Democratic votes to carry her to victory in such a purple state.
In short, if Sinema decides to run in 2024, Democrats are facing two bad options, both of which are very likely to result in a Republican victory.
There are caveats, of course. Kyle Kondik, one of the most astute observers of American elections, noted that Sinema doesn’t have much of a campaign infrastructure in Arizona. This, in tandem with a weak Republican nominee, could perhaps be enough to carry a strong Democratic candidate over the line. But I’m much more circumspect. I think that if Sinema runs for reelection, no matter what Democrats decide to do, Republicans would be favorites to win Arizona’s Senate election.
They might not want to hear it, but left-leaning Democrats and progressives shoulder some of the blame for the situation the party now finds itself in. Over the past four years, the party’s left flank has made an enemy out of Sinema — attacking her for her refusal to toe the party line on legislation, censuring her for her staunch defense of the Fillibuster, and threatening to run a candidate against her in the 2024 primary.
Progressives may be saying good riddance (if you look on Twitter, that’s certainly the dominant sentiment), but from what I can see, it’s much more likely that Sinema will be replaced with a conservative Republican than a progressive Democrat. And from that perspective, even if progressives dislike the woman herself, Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party is a disaster for the left.
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