Do Democrats Stand A Chance Against Ted Cruz?
Maybe turning Texas blue isn't as crazy as it sounds.
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Democrats have a semi-masochistic relationship with Texas. Every election cycle they fall into the same trap of believing that this time they’ll finally be able to turn the state blue despite all the available evidence saying otherwise.
Barack Obama in 2012. Hillary Clinton in 2016. Beto O’Rourke in 2018. Joe Biden in 2020. All were hailed by Democrats as the candidate who could finally make Blexas — Blue Texas — a reality. But none of them did. In fact, no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
So why are Democrats so perennially optimistic about a state they haven’t won for the last 30 years? In short: demographics. Texas has large and growing Hispanic and suburban populations, two groups that typically favor Democrats. Proponents of the Blexas theory say that these groups will eventually become dominant electoral forces and tip the state to Democrats.
I’ve always been a bit skeptical. It just seemed a bit far-fetched that a state that voted for George Bush by over 20% and hasn’t elected a statewide Democrat for decades would suddenly flip for candidates like Obama, Clinton, O’Rourke, or Biden. Plus, demographics are not destiny. We can’t know with any real certainty how Hispanics and suburbanites will vote five or 10 years from now. So just because they’re a growing demographic doesn’t mean the state will inevitably continue to trend Democratic.
But I’m starting to believe that Democrats have at least some shot at winning Texas. Specifically, I think that Democrats have a chance to win the state’s 2024 Senate race. It seems much less likely that Democrats could win on the presidential level, since partisan attachment is strongest at the top of the ticket and because Joe Biden is incredibly unpopular in Texas. But I do think that Democrats have a shot at winning the Texas Senate race in 2024.
I’ll explain why, but first, a bit of background on Texas and the 2024 Senate race.
Some Background On Texas
Texas has voted Republican in presidential elections for the last four decades. The GOP’s strength may have peaked in 2000 when George Bush walloped Al Gore by over 20%, but the party’s double-digit dominance continued through the Obama era. In 2016, though, Clinton brought Democrats back within single-digit margins. She lost the state by just nine points. Biden continued the same trajectory, shrinking Trump’s margin of victory to under six points.
The state’s Senate elections have followed a similar trend. The last Democratic Senator from Texas left office exactly three decades from tomorrow — on June 14, 1993. Only in 2018 did Texas Senate elections become competitive again, when Beto O’Rourke’s insurgent campaign came 2.6% away from toppling Ted Cruz. The Democratic attempt in 2020 to knock out John Cornyn was less effective, coming up 10% short.
Now, Democrats are gearing up for a rematch against Cruz, who’s up for reelection next year. A number of Democrats have entered the field, but the clear frontrunner is Representative Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who currently represents a Dallas-based district. Allred has built a reputation for himself as a well-liked pragmatic legislator who tends towards moderation and bipartisanship. He’s about as strong of a candidate as Democrats could hope to recruit, so I assume that he’s going to get the nomination unless something shocking happens.
With such a strong candidate already running, Democrats believe they might finally be able to turn Texas blue. And this time, I think they actually have a strong case to make.
The Bullish Case For Democrats In Texas
To start, Cruz only won his last election by 2.6%. That’s a slim margin, and I think it’s fair to start with a presumption that he’ll likely face stiff competition again. Moreover, Texas has been trending towards Democrats for the last decade. If that continues, Texas will be just a few points more Republican than the rest of the nation by election time next year. Together, these two factors mean that the conditions are there for the 2024 Senate race to be quite competitive — so long as Democrats are ready to wage a muscular campaign.
And all signs indicate that they are. Allred raised $2 million within 36 hours of his announcement. He’s always been a prolific fundraiser, so that number isn’t necessarily surprising. But the pace at which he was able to raise that money is a sign that Democrats are already excited about the prospect of ousting Cruz. If O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign, in which he raised over 80 million, is any indication, Allred (or another Democratic nominee) will have more than enough money to get his message out to Texas voters.
That message, if Democrats do end up nominating Allred, is compelling. Given his history in the NFL, his relatively recent pivot to politics, and his intentional strategy to come across as a moderate, Allred has an interesting background that could appeal to independent voters sick of partisanship and Washington politicians. There’s even a chance he could win over a few moderate Republicans by touting his success working across the aisle to bring federal money back home to his state and congressional district.
All this contrasts sharply with the brand that Cruz has built for himself as a firebrand and unrepentant partisan. That may have been a good way for Cruz to build his national profile among Republicans, but it’s also made him one of the most unpopular Senators in the country. According to Morning Consult, Cruz is the Senator with the 7th highest disapproval rating among his or her own constituents, with 45% of Texans disapproving of his job performance.
The only poll that’s come out of Texas has Cruz leading Allred 42% to 37%, with 14% undecided and 7% saying they’d vote for someone else. That’s not too bad for Allred, considering that only 48% percent of Texans know who he is, while only 4% don’t know Cruz.
In short, it’s not impossible to imagine Allred clawing his way to victory as his name recognition rises and as he prosecutes the case against Ted Cruz.
The Bearish Case For Democrats In Texas
The smartest people in electoral forecasting at Sabato’s Crystal Ball and at Cook Political Report both rate the Texas Senate as “likely Republican.” So I want to acknowledge that I’m out on a limb by saying that Democrats have a decent shot at flipping Texas blue.
And there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Democrats' chances.
First, 2018 was a blue wave. The national environment was very favorable to Democrats, which is certainly part of the reason that O’Rourke was within striking distance of Cruz. If next year’s landscape is significantly more friendly for Republicans, it could make Democratic victory all but impossible.
Second, next year is a presidential election. If the GOP presidential candidate wins Texas — as I expect they will — a Democratic victory would require a substantial number of voters to split their ballot. Since ticket-splitting is an increasingly rare phenomenon, that may be an impossible barrier for Democrats to overcome.
Second, Colin Allred isn’t as charismatic as Beto O’Rourke. Regardless of if you liked O’Rourke or not, it’s undeniable that he spoke with an earnestness and passion that inspired people. Allred might have a compelling background and approachable persona, but he doesn’t light up a room like O’Rourke did. Watch his campaign announcement video or any of his TV interviews and you’ll see what I mean.
Third, Hispanics — who make up 40% of the population — have actually shifted away from Democrats in the last few years. While 68% of Hispanics voted for Democratic candidates in 2018, just 62% did in 2022. Six points might seem like a slight shift, but it would likely be enough to put victory out of reach for Allred.
Lastly, Texas has long been a Lucy-with-the-football situation for pundits. Anybody saying that Democrats have the upper hand there should look at the many forecasters before them who have been fooled by the idea of Blexas.
All in all, if I had to put money on it, I’d still bet on a GOP victory. That said, I do think the race is going to be much more competitive than the conventional wisdom says. And I wouldn’t be shocked if Democrats pull off an upset and beat Cruz.
Even if the bearish argument for Democrats turns out to be correct, it’s no mystery why Allred is eager to run against Cruz. As O’Rourke showed in 2020, even losing a high-profile Senate race can launch you to national fame and set you up for a presidential run. So whether or not Texas turns blue, Allred’s decision to take on Cruz is a smart move for his political ambition.
In any case, we’ll have to wait until closer to election day to know if Democrats really have a shot at making Blexas happen. At this point, I wouldn’t bet on it, but I also wouldn’t dismiss it as a Democratic pipe dream in the same way I did in every previous election cycle.
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Being a 5th Generation Texan who leans left, I agree with every point you made. And the one thing that makes me hopeful is that Colin is focusing on job performance rather than partisan issues, which makes me think that he can draw more moderate R's than Beto did. A wildcard is Trump's indictments and which way that will play w/ the majority of Texas R's by Nov. 2024. Could help or hurt Colin. Dorsey
Allred, like all Democrats, votes regularly to allow men to declare themselves to be women, and then to enter any women's space, place, event, or competition at will. This includes housing intact male rapists in women's prisons.
Public opinion is turning strongly against allowing men to invade women's sports: https://www.thedistancemag.com/p/the-lia-thomas-effect-americans-reject
Any Republican smart enough to campaign on this issue will win. Ted Cruz is smart enough.